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C.J. Cron Fantasy Projections From Dingers

Last Played: April 05, 2021
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The Dingers Podcast is the only fantasy baseball podcast for smart people. Dingers is discussing the sad sad state of the Colorado Rockies, but they are breaking it down as deep as it can possibly go. These are pure facts, stats, and numbers each week.
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my projection, which I believe is lower than most, still give C J. Cron his career year. Now, if you're ready, where did you have his batting average to 70. Mhm. If you're ready, go ahead. I'm going to get his stats up to give us what his career season would be if we took the best of everything. So what are your Cron projections? Um, so it's tricky. So what? What I think we're going to see is about to 60. Oh, no. With 25 home runs and about 65 r b I s is what I'm expecting. How about runs runs about 70. Thank you so much for more runs than people think. Because I think he's I think he's going to have, um, and interesting and the reason I'm going this direction and I You have enough time to prepare for this question. But that's okay, But the thing that I find interesting is the decrease in launch angle in 2019, right? So it was agreed. But it was it was in a big ballpark, which he's also in again, right, and and it definitely will be interesting, given that there's half decent pitching in that division in the NL overall, like that's going to be there. So I I also like, for me, the discrepancy is massive because he doesn't have large numbers of at bats against a lot of the guys that he's going to see. So this is where my concern is. Like, I almost dropped the bottom out on this because I think given what I mentioned already but called Welker, there's also a very strong possibility that Josh Fuentes is a starting first baseman. So that would be interesting if that happened. Yeah, and and and it's not to say that crime won't have it, that's he'll still get some of that. But I I don't think 5 50 is realistic for Grant. I agree. I don't think it's realistic, but that seems to be what's happening. So his his career high for at that is 51 So, Um and I had specifically said to you to assume 5 50 because that way it's maxed out, and the reason why is because every projection is ridiculous for him. But his career best year for runs the total was 68 that was in 18 with Tampa Bay for RBS. It was 78 that was in 19 with Minnesota in a stacked Minnesota lineup. Home runs 30 as his career high that was in 18 as well. Stolen bases are three, so that's an irrelevant one either way. Um, but the average his best year in average was 16 with the Angels. He batted 2 78 in 400 eighties, roughly 400 eighties. But Colorado jumps average for players and power power hitters get a little bit less of it, but they still get the bump. And that's why I feel comfortable taking a career to what is he to 60 hitter, UM, career to 57 hitter and saying he'll hit 2 70. I think that's okay. Now your launch angle point is a good one for you going to to 60 Um, and then the dinger is at 25. Both of us picked it. I picked it because I don't think he's gonna need them. He's going to be able to just knock guys in. But I do think his runs and RBS will be high because of the ballpark and the fact that he will have guys on base in front of me. I think that the drop in launch angle is actually going to be more beneficial for his back up in Colorado. Given that large outfield, right? So I think in other ballparks it would be a penalty. But I think there is actually going to be an advantage. Where I think he's going to lose on the average, though, is that I do think he's going to Like I said, I don't think he's getting anywhere close to 5 50 he's going to share a bat's between Fuentes and McMahon and maybe Welker. And you might even see some of the other first base product prospects pushed by the end of the season two. And and let's not forget, there's always that Greg Bird possibility. So let me put a bow on the projection part for current and the reason why I had specifically said, Let's go with 550 at bats. So the highest projection is 532 at bats for him, and these are we're talking like the bad X, the bad 80 c uh, fangraphs steamer zips. OK, everybody. This is everybody who, um has a reputation for projections. They are all giving him 475 or more as high as 532. The max for home runs in a projection is 31. The max for runs is only 70. So I was off that I probably should have put mine to 70 where you've got it. But the Max for RBS ranged from 74 to 89. That is lofty to go to 89 for a guy who hasn't sniffed it and the starting job thing. Now everybody gives a stolen base as a projection minimum one. That's just the randomness of it, uh, the average, which is the one that I think everybody is off on his Macs. Average projections to 75 and the men that he's got is 2 62 giving him a mend that's only five points over his career. Average in that part is a mistake, and that's made by a couple of the predominant you know or sorry preeminent project
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